EU25

Year         Population               Births               %

1960         376,423,000              6,987,000          1.856

2004         457,189,000              4,797,000          1.049

There were 76% more births per head of population in the EU25 in 1960 than in 2004.

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Ireland

Year         Population               Births               %

1980         3,392,800                  74,064              2.18

2004         4,234,925                  61,689              1.46

There were 50% more births per head of population in Ireland in 1980 than in 2004.

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How do the authorities react? They come up with statements like “Ireland has the highest birth rate in the EU”; true, but this is like saying that County Longford had the lowest incidence of potato blight in Ireland in the summer of 1845!
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The following quote is taken from the Editorial and Editors Notes scattered through out the Mayo Association Yearbook 2001. Editor: John F Higgins

Average per annum over past 35 years                                                   1m

Consumer spend per person per annum (0.5 are adults)                       IR£10,000

  = A COMPLETE MONETARY/SOCIAL DISASTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The birth rate of the Arab countries has performed in reverse proportion to that in Europe, they are experiencing exploding numbers of young people.

It's the Demography, Stupid
The real reason the West is in danger of extinction.

BY MARK STEYN
Wednesday, January 4, 2006 12:01 a.m. EST

Most people reading this have strong stomachs, so let me lay it out as baldly as I can: Much of what we loosely call the Western world will not survive this century, and much of it will effectively disappear within our lifetimes, including many if not most Western European countries. There'll probably still be a geographical area on the map marked as Italy or the Netherlands--probably--just as in Istanbul there's still a building called St. Sophia's Cathedral. But it's not a cathedral; it's merely a designation for a piece of real estate. Likewise, Italy and the Netherlands will merely be designations for real estate. The challenge for those who reckon Western civilization is on balance better than the alternatives is to figure out a way to save at least some parts of the West.

http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110007760

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EU economic growth will be severely affected by a fall in the working-age population from 2010, with the labour force estimated to slump by 48 million or 16% by 2050. In the same period the population aged 65 or more will rise by 58 million or 77%, leaving two instead of four workers for every pensioner. 

http://www.globalaging.org/pension/world/2005/euagegrowth.htm

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Parts of Europe, then, may be entering a new demographic trap. People restrict family size from choice. But social, economic and cultural factors then cause this natural fertility decline to overshoot. This changes expectations, to which people respond by having even fewer children. That does not necessarily mean that birth rates will fall even more: there may yet be some natural floor. But it could mean that recovery from very low fertility rates proves to be slow or even non-existent.

http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5494593

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Ireland 27.5% of GDP (2005 est.) Of GDP

Japan 170% of GDP (2005 est.)

The national debts of France (66%), Portugal (69.4% of GDP 2005 est.), Germany (68.1% of GDP (005 est.), Italy (107.3% of GDP 2005 est.) - all of which are terrifying. Standard and Poors have made it clear that they intend to write the debt of many EU countries as junk by 2020. Simply they will not be able to borrow money. How is that sustainable?

England 42.2% of GDP (2005 est.)

USA 64.7% of GDP (2005 est.)

Figures taken from the Criminal Investigation Agency Worldbook.

THE ELDERLY WEST’s commitment to future generations, judging by the high level of borrowing is symptomatic of a people who have lost the plot of life. JFH.

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A dog does not hoard sausage.

Going into debt is fun at the beginning. The fun stops when one sits atop the debt and must pay the interest. In the past, the topic could be pushed aside by pointing to the wealthy future generations. But this is no longer an option. Firstly, since 1995 Germany is the country with the lowest growth rate anywhere. Where then is the future wealth to come from? Secondly, the future generations are shrinking due to the Germans’ low birth rates. There is probably no country in the world in which the number of births relative to the population is as low as in Germany. The baby-boomers that were born in 1964 are now forty years old. Not many people are coming after them. Even the age cohort of the thirty-year olds is 40% smaller, and the following age cohorts will continue to shrink. No, the idea that future generations will help us out of the mess is ridiculous. We ourselves are the “wealthy future generations” of whom the politicians of the past were speaking. It is us who will have to pay the bill.

Interest on the public debt amounts to more than 68 billion euro this year, although interest rates are as low today as never before. When interest rates normalise again, the interest burden will rise by half and exceed 100 billion euro. Even today, the interest burden is higher than the net borrowing of 65 billion euro permitted by the Stability and Growth Pact.

Hans-Werner Sinn
Professor of Economics and Public Finance
President of the Ifo Institute

http://www.cesifo.de/portal/page?_pageid=36,102910&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL&item_link=stp052.htm

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Not a single European country has a birth rate that will enable it to survive in its present form through this century. By 2050, only one-tenth of the world’s population will be Europeans, and it will be the oldest tenth on earth, with a median age of 50.

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In Poland, it's just 1.23, among the bottom five in Europe. The country's population actually fell by almost half a million over the last six years. Estimates suggest there will be four million fewer Poles by 2030.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4852924.stm

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Aleksei Malashenko, an expert on Islam in Russia, said: “The real problem is the crisis of the Russian population, not the increase of the Muslim population. And, of course, the Church is not so powerful or so significant for Russians as Islam is for Muslims. This doesn’t mean that Russia will become a Muslim society in several years, although maybe in half a century we’ll see something surprising.”

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-1721508,00.html

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European Union

Age structure:

0-14 years: 16.03% (male 37,608,010/female 35,632,351)
15-64 years: 67.17% (male 154,439,536/female 152,479,619)
65 years and over:      16.81%            (male 3            1,515,921/female         45,277,821) (2006 est.)

Total fertility rate:          1.47 children born/woman (2006 est.)

Turkey

Age structure:

0-14 years: 25.5% (male 9,133,226/female 8,800,070)
15-64 years: 67.7% (male 24,218,277/female 23,456,761)
65 years and over: 6.8% (male 2,198,073/female 2,607,551) (2006 est.)

Total fertility rate:          1.92 children born/woman (2006 est.)

NB Turkey would have 25% of 0 – 14 in the EU

Stats come from CIA Worldbook.

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Economically, the 12 years of Chirac's presidency have been a failure. The pro-Sarkozy economist Nicolas Baverez says the French population have been "pauperised", with a standard of living now 38 per cent below that of the US, 20 per cent behind Ireland and 12 per cent behind Britain.

The public debt has mushroomed from 58 per cent of GDP in 2002 to 66.6 per cent at present. Last week it emerged that France's jobless rate is probably 9.5 per cent and not 8.7 per cent as claimed by the government.

http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/world/2007/0312/1173443050215.html

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Pope Benedict warned that the bloc was headed up a slippery slope of indifference and said it could not deny its "historical, cultural and moral identity", which Christianity helped forge. "A community that builds itself without respecting the true dignity of the human being, forgetting that each person is created in the image of God, ends up doing good for no one," he said.

http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/world/2007/0326/1174528612911.html

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According to the European Commission, the size of Europe's working population is likely to fall by 48 million between now and 2050 with serious implications for economic growth and public finances, particularly in countries like Italy and Poland.

http://euobserver.com/9/23775/?rk=1

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Europes birthrate is the lowest recorded anywhere during peacetime for any major part of the planet and fertility is only two-thirds of that needed for long-term population replacement.

By 2025, about 23% of the ~EU population will be 65 or older, the U,S is 18%. The  EU15 will have two-thirds as many kids as people over 65.

The projected rise on the numbers of military aged men (18-23) is set to rise by 23% in America and fall by 22% in EU25, it plunges by half in Russia. R will have 0ne-forth the level in U S or EU.

By Nicholas Eberstadt

http://www.milkeninstitute.org/publications/review/2005_6/34_47mr26.pdf.

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